Research & Forecasts

Scientific qualifications:
quantification (history and computing), mathematical modelling of historical and political processes, synergetic simulation of political stability at contemporary transitive countries, methods of historical researches, formalisation of historical conceptions, economic history of Eastern Europe, quantitative history of Russia of the Eighteenth – beginning of Twentieth, methods of mathematical statistics and time-series analysis, GIS-assisted analysis.

Scientific experience:
– regression, correlation and dispersion analysis, time-series analysis of grain prices movement in Russia from the second half of the Eighteenth to the beginning of the Twentieth was conducted;
– make a logic-mathematical model of Russian grain prices movement in the second half of the eighteenth;
– carried out the project on a theme “Simulation of the grain prices movement in Russia in the first half of the nineteenth” (in September 1996 – May 1997 at financial support of Moscow Public Scientific Fund);
– carried out the project on a theme “Simulation of formation and growth of all-Russia grain-commodity market in the second half of the eighteenth – beginning the twentieth” (in September 1997 – May 1998 at financial support of Moscow Public Scientific Fund);
– on GIS-language MapBasic made interface shell for regional electron maps management in GIS MapInfo
– made some variants of a logic-mathematical model of the world-historical development conception of N.J.Danilevski and work on making the general model of world-historical process conceptions development.
– made simulation model of development of theoretical historiographical process on the base of artificial neural nets
– made some simulation models of a contemporary political process in Ukraine and give a forecast of political stability grade in Ukraine till 2031 on the base of synergetic dynamics.

Here is the data for some of my forecasts.

Data for the article “Forecasting of dynamics of a potential of international migrations by 2050” prepared for “The Polish Migration Review”:
List of countries taken for analysis and forecasted international migrant stock at 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 according to the medium scenario of demographic development, offered by UN

Research papers:


On Google Scholar

On ResearchGate

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